Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk has stopped its strengthening trend for the moment.  
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown a large primary band 
extending around the northern and eastern portions of the 
circulation, with a dry air intrusion making its way into the inner 
core.  An SSMIS microwave pass from 1915 UTC showed that the eyewall 
was open to the southwest.  The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, 
closest to the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt.  A subtropical ridge
should continue to steer Kirk in the same general direction through
Thursday.  By the end of the week, a trough exiting the eastern U.S.
seaboard should weaken the ridge and turn Kirk northward, followed
by a turn to the north-northeast over the weekend.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered and only minor updates have been made
to the latest NHC track forecast.

Kirk is expected to continue strengthening in the coming days. 
Global models forecast the deep-layer vertical wind shear to remain 
weak and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track 
during the next few days. The vertical wind shear is predicted to 
gradually increase over the weekend and will likely induce a 
weakening trend by the end of the forecast period.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and now 
lies at the upper-end of the guidance envelope, closest to HCCA.  As 
mentioned earlier, Kirk is a large system and expected to grow 
larger as it moves northward, with tropical-storm-force winds 
extending far from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 16.7N  40.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 17.6N  42.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 18.7N  43.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 19.8N  45.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 21.0N  46.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  04/1200Z 22.3N  48.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 24.0N  49.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 28.8N  50.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 35.3N  46.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci