Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

Strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear has been affecting 
Fay today, with most or all deep convection being displaced well 
east of the well-defined low-level center.  Scatterometer data 
suggest that the peak winds have diminished to near 40 kt, which 
will be the advisory intensity estimate.

Global model forecasts show that a strong upper-level trough will 
shift eastward away from Fay during the next day or so.  This will 
likely lessen the wind shear over the system by late tomorrow.  
However, the Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone should 
be ingesting drier air during the next few days.  This is consistent 
with simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model, which 
shows the system losing most of its associated deep convection 
during the next 48 hours or so.  Therefore the NHC forecast shows 
Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow night, and this 
event could occur even sooner than that.

Fay is moving slowly south-southwestward along the eastern side of 
a mid-level high.  The cyclone is expected to turn southwestward 
and then westward around the southern portion of the high until 
dissipation.  The official track forecast is similar to the 
previous few NHC forecasts.  This is also in good agreement with 
the latest GFS prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 33.1N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  22/0600Z 32.4N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  22/1800Z 31.3N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  23/0600Z 30.5N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  23/1800Z 29.9N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  24/0600Z 29.6N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  24/1800Z 29.5N  41.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  25/1800Z 29.6N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch