Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Alberto is gradually becoming better organized this evening. 
Satellite and microwave imagery shows a band curving around the 
southern side of the center near areas of deep convection. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating the 
storm measured surface wind speeds of 43 kt and peak flight-level 
winds of 61 kt, with a much smaller radius-of-maximum winds than the 
previous mission.  The intensity is set to 45 kt.

The recent storm motion is generally westward at 8 kt.  Model
guidance insists Alberto will continue westward and accelerate as a
ridge centered over the eastern United States builds over the area. 
The track guidance remains tightly clustered and predicts the 
center of the storm will reach the coast of Mexico overnight. Prior 
to moving inland, there is still a possibility that Alberto will 
slightly strengthen.  The forecast now shows the storm dissipating 
over the mountains of Mexico in 24 hours.

It is important to understand that Alberto is a large system and
continues to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico far from the storm center.  It is also worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system.  Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected overnight along portions
of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 21.5N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  20/1200Z 21.7N  98.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci