Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the 
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep 
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the 
circulation with some increase in banding also noted.  Based on the 
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on 
Tropical Depression Fourteen.  The initial intensity is set at 30 
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data.  Another ASCAT pass 
is expected over the system later this morning. 

The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The 
system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward 
during the next day or so.  After that time, a trough moving 
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause 
the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a 
slightly faster forward speed.  By Tuesday the cyclone is expected 
to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and 
this track will bring the system across the west coast of the 
Florida Peninsula by midweek.  The track guidance is in good 
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in 
the forward speed.  The NHC track lies near the various consensus 
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and 
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users 
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at 
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 
miles.

The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical 
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.  These conditions are 
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next 
few days.  The intensification is likely to be slower during the 
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but 
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated.  The 
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves 
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional 
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during 
that time.  The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of 
rapid intensification after 36 h.  The official forecast shows 
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and 
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This forecast is near the intensity 
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies 
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the 
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with 
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast 
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages:
1.  The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves 
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or 
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the 
Florida Peninsula mid week. 

2.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and 
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida 
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these 
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow 
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to 
the forecast. 

3.  Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday 
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall 
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday 
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, 
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river 
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 22.1N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 22.5N  94.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 22.9N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 22.8N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 22.9N  91.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  08/0000Z 23.4N  89.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 24.3N  87.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 27.0N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 29.9N  78.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown