Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032024
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite-derived winds
indicate that the low-pressure system that emerged over the
southeastern Bay of Campeche this morning has become sufficiently
organized to be classified as a tropical depression, the third
tropical cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Conventional satellite imagery shows developing curved bands in the
northwest and northeast quadrants with a recent deep burst of
convection near the surface center.  Based on the wind data, this
advisory's initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The surrounding environment appears conducive for some
strengthening before the tropical cyclone moves inland early
Monday.  Subsequently, the official intensity forecast calls for
the system to become a tropical storm before landfall and this
agrees with the global models and the SHIPS statistical guidance.
Afterward, the circulation is very likely to dissipate over the
mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico by Monday night.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, along
the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge over the
north-central Gulf coast.  The depression should continue in this
general motion and is expected to approach the coast of eastern
Mexico tonight and move inland early Monday.  The official NHC
track forecast is based on a blend of the global models.

Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within
the state of Veracruz.

The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be
heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico and into Monday.

Key message:
1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern 
Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher 
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 19.7N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 20.0N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H  01/1800Z 20.2N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts