Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent 
showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level 
circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements 
indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. 
However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a 
tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast 
of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. 
Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and 
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and 
the Yucatan Peninsula. 

The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the 
circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is 
300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is 
expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central 
America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland 
before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the 
simple and corrected consensus models. 

Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with 
light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. 
However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves 
inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the 
official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end 
tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before 
dissipating on Sunday. 

Key Messages: 

1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is 
expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and 
high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico 
during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are 
possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it 
treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and 
northern Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the 
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the 
Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 17.5N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  19/0600Z 17.5N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  19/1800Z 17.3N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  20/0600Z 17.2N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi