Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024

Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic 
today.  This formation is based on scatterometer depicting a 
closed circulation center, and organized deep convection based on 
TAFB/SAB satellite classifications. Satellite imagery also 
indicates that the low-level circulation has consolidated beneath 
the mid-level center based upon visible imagery  The initial 
intensity is set to 30 kt, based on the scatterometer data.

The depression is estimated to be moving 285/16 kt.  The system 
should move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days 
with the storm being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of 
the Azores.  Confidence in the depression's track gradually lessens 
beyond forecast hour 72 as the synoptic scale flow becomes more 
complex. The depression will probably gradually slow down between 
hours 72-120 as it becomes caught between a pair of upper level 
ridges; one north of the Azores and another north of the Lesser 
Antilles. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough in the North 
Atlantic will attempt to deepen far enough south to steer the 
depression northward. How much the upper trough digs southward 
will determine if and when the storm takes on a more northerly 
track, or if it remains at a lower latitude longer. The forecast 
was placed just south of consensus this forecast period.

Wind shear is not expected to be a big hindrance in its 
development initially while SSTs along its forecast path will 
generally be around 27C.  Thus gradually intensification is shown 
for the first couple of days.  However, shear is forecast to 
increase thereafter along with more marginal dry air conditions. 
This forecast leans more heavily on the regional hurricane models 
which show more modest intensification than the statistical 
dynamical tools but could be conservative at the end depending on 
how much latitude the system gains.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 16.0N  28.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 16.6N  31.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 17.5N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 18.6N  36.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 19.3N  39.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  14/0000Z 19.9N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 20.3N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  15/1200Z 20.6N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 21.0N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake