Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Epsilon (AL272020) DATA RELEASED: 10/20/2020 3:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

A curved band of deep convection persists near and over the center 
of Epsilon this morning. The cyclone is experiencing southwesterly 
vertical wind shear as it interacts with an upper-level trough to 
its southwest, and the storm still has a hybrid-like appearance in 
satellite imagery with a band of convection well to the east and 
northeast of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry 
mid-level air is impinging on the south and west sides of the 
circulation. A very recent ASCAT-A overpass shows several 45-kt 
vectors in the southeast quadrant, and it is certainly possible that 
the intensity could be near 50 kt based on the known undersampling 
issues. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt with this advisory, 
which is consistent with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. 
Epsilon remains a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds 
extending outward more than 250 n mi in the northern semicircle.

Although Epsilon was drifting northeastward earlier this morning, 
recent visible satellite imagery suggest Epsilon is beginning to 
turn north-northwestward or northwestward with a faster forward 
speed as a mid-level ridge builds to its north and east. This 
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. 
Beyond 72 h, a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the western 
Atlantic should cause Epsilon to turn northward and then accelerate 
northeastward near the end of the forecast period. The track 
guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments were 
made to the previous track in line with the consensus aids 
(excluding the outlying HWRF solution at this time). Epsilon is 
still forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

The intensity forecast remains tricky since moderate 
south-southwesterly shear is expected to persist for another 12-18 h 
as Epsilon continues to interact with a nearby upper-level trough. 
By the time the deep-layer shear abates, Epsilon will be gaining 
latitude and moving over waters with lower oceanic heat content. 
Additionally, intrusions of environmental dry air could inhibit or 
at least slow the development process. Regardless, the global models 
show fairly significant deepening of the cyclone in the coming days, 
and the intensity guidance consensus still supports at least gradual 
strengthening. Therefore, little change was made to the official NHC 
intensity forecast, which still shows Epsilon becoming a hurricane 
late this week.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it 
makes its closest approach to Bermuda late this week.  While it is 
too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and 
intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from 
wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch 
is in effect for the island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 26.5N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 27.4N  56.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 28.2N  58.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 28.9N  59.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 30.0N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  23/0000Z 31.4N  60.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 32.4N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 34.5N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 39.5N  55.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown