Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Epsilon (AL272020) DATA RELEASED: 10/23/2020 3:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12 
hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary 
satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional 
well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75 
kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite 

The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster 
speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day 
or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge 
located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward 
the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies 
ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be 
moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing 
extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very 
similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus 

Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will 
actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as 
it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however, 
that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening. 
Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the 
next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate 
any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening 
should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually 
increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream. 
However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude 
cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the 
forecast period.  The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the 
previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus 


INIT  23/1500Z 34.1N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 35.6N  61.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 37.5N  60.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 40.3N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 43.7N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  26/0000Z 48.1N  39.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  26/1200Z 52.5N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Papin/Blake