Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Delta (AL262020) DATA RELEASED: 10/10/2020 4:00:00 AM UTC

Copy of official data

Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Delta continues to track north-northeastward across Louisiana
bringing tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains to portions of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas.  Doppler radar images show
that the storm is asymmetric, with most of the heavy rains occurring
on the north side of the circulation.  Based on surface
observations, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory.  Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become
a tropical depression later today, and dissipate entirely in a
couple of days.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 14 kt.  A bend
to the northeast is expected to occur later today, and that motion
should continue until the system opens into a trough in 48 to 60
hours. Even though Delta is forecast to dissipate over or near
Kentucky, the moisture associated with its remnants will continue
northeastward and move across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S.
early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist for a few more hours near
the path of Delta∆s center.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river
flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday.
Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 31.8N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
12H  10/1800Z 33.2N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  11/0600Z 34.4N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  11/1800Z 36.0N  86.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  12/0600Z 38.2N  83.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi