Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Teddy (AL202020) DATA RELEASED: 9/16/2020 3:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy's overall appearance has changed little over the past several
hours. Microwave and infrared satellite images depict a
well-defined inner core with an eye evident in the microwave
imagery. However, visible imagery reveals that the eye remains
cloud filled. Over the past few hours, the coldest cloud tops and
have become confined to the western portion of the circulation,
which could be the early signs of the cyclone experiencing some
westerly wind shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates
remain unchanged from 6 h ago, and therefore the initial intensity
will remain 85 kt.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional 
strengthening over the next 18-24 h, and with the inner-core well 
defined, rapid intensification could resume shortly. By 36 h, 
increasing westerly wind shear and drier air should limit any 
further intensification, and possibly induce some weakening. Later 
on in the forecast period, Teddy could encounter some cooler waters 
due to upwelling caused by Paulette. This could also attribute to 
additional weakening. The latest NHC forecast is largely unchanged 
from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. It 
should be noted that if the rapid intensification that has paused 
recently doe not resume soon, adjustments to the intensity forecast 
will be necessary. 

Teddy continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. This motion is 
forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is 
steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in 
the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is 
expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the 
northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone 
to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track 
guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, then the spread 
increases after that time, likely due to how the models are 
handling the approaching trough. The NHC track forecast is close to 
the previous one and is near the various multi-model track 
consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to 
approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on average 
5-day track and intensity errors, it is too soon to know what type 
of impacts the cyclone could have on the island. 


INIT  16/1500Z 16.5N  49.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  17/0000Z 17.5N  50.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  17/1200Z 19.0N  52.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  18/0000Z 20.4N  53.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  18/1200Z 21.9N  55.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  19/0000Z 23.5N  56.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  19/1200Z 25.1N  58.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  20/1200Z 28.3N  62.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 31.7N  64.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

Forecaster Latto