Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy continues to quickly intensify.  The latest satellite images 
shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show 
it is closed in the low-levels.  Satellite intensity estimates 
earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set 
to 85 with the increasing organization.  

The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with 
light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight 
37 GHz microwave data.  Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast 
for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt.  
After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the 
mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along 
with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air.  At long range, 
Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette.  The 
intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is 
still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most 
everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the 
forecast period, and so does the official forecast.

Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt.  A mid-tropospheric 
high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed 
throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to 
the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough.  
The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously 
shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central 
Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that 
direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to 
Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the 
average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 15.8N  49.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  16/1800Z 16.8N  50.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  17/0600Z 18.3N  51.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  17/1800Z 19.7N  52.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  18/0600Z 21.3N  54.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  18/1800Z 22.7N  56.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  19/0600Z 24.2N  57.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  20/0600Z 27.5N  62.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 31.0N  64.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake