Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Teddy (AL202020) DATA RELEASED: 9/15/2020 9:00:00 AM UTC

Copy of official data

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized 
overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in 
banding features.  The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt, 
a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would 
indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm. 
While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is 
quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or 
moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen.  Thus, 
the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a 
blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected- 
consensus guidance.  Teddy bears watching in the long range for 
category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the 
guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September 

The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt.  
Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next 
several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic 
ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the 
end of the forecast.  While the guidance is in very good agreement, 
there's been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due 
to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle.  The NHC 
track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of 
the guidance envelope.


INIT  15/0900Z 13.7N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 14.4N  47.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 15.6N  48.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 16.8N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 18.2N  51.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  17/1800Z 19.7N  52.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 21.0N  54.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 23.5N  56.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 26.5N  59.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

Forecaster Blake