Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
200 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Rene is starting to pull away from the Cabo Verde Islands, though 
some of the outer rainbands are affecting the far northwestern 
islands.  Although the tropical storm has a well-defined 
circulation, the convective banding features have not become any 
better organized since yesterday.  The satellite classifications are 
largely unchanged and range from 25 to 37 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B 
pass showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range.  Based on all of 
this data, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt.

The tropical storm is moving westward at a faster pace of 14 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Rene is expected to build westward,
which should cause the cyclone to move westward to
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next
couple of days.  After that time, the storm is expected to slow down
and turn northwestward and then northward as it moves into a
pronounced weakness in the ridge.  Although the models agree on the
overall scenario, there are notable differences in where and how
sharply Rene will recurve with the GFS on the right side of the
guidance and the ECMWF on the left. The NHC track forecast is
adjusted a little to the right of the previous one, but still lies
closer to the left side of the guidance envelope between the HCCA
and TVCA consensus aids.

Although Rene has not strengthened since yesterday, the models
continue to suggest that the storm will steadily strengthen during
the next few days while it moves over relatively warm 26-27 C
waters and remains in environment of low wind shear and high
moisture.  Beyond that time, increasing southwesterly wind shear
and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual
weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and lies near the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands for a few more hours.  A 
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions 
of the western Cabo Verde Islands today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 16.5N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  09/0000Z 16.8N  28.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 17.4N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  10/0000Z 18.3N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  10/1200Z 19.3N  36.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  11/0000Z 20.5N  38.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  11/1200Z 22.1N  39.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  12/1200Z 26.5N  42.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 29.7N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi