Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the 
circulation and is re-forming near the center.  Based on a blend of 
subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the 
current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt.  Hopefully we will get 
a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better 
intensity estimate.  Some strengthening is anticipated during the 
next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the 
intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter.  
The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus.

Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn 
to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a 
mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days.  In 
the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the 
north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn 
toward the west and west-southwest.  The new official track 
forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one 
in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 20.7N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  12/0600Z 21.7N  42.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  12/1800Z 23.3N  44.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  13/0600Z 24.9N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  13/1800Z 26.4N  47.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  14/0600Z 27.0N  47.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  14/1800Z 27.0N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  15/1800Z 26.5N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 25.0N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch