Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over 
northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the 
eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured 
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant 
where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still 
functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed 
and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much 
of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent 
adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and 
that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported 
pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by 
surface observations from Bermuda.

The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and 
wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the 
latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette's 
future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves 
away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North 
Atlantic.  Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane 
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is 
forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins 
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is 
remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the 
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest 
track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track. 
Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a 
turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower 
eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large 
mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast 
to begin influencing Paulette's track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda 
this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple 
of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm  surge, and 
very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 32.3N  64.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  14/1800Z 33.9N  64.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  15/0600Z 36.1N  62.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  15/1800Z 38.4N  57.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  16/0600Z 40.9N  51.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  16/1800Z 43.4N  45.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  17/0600Z 45.3N  40.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  18/0600Z 45.5N  36.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 41.6N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart