Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation 
of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However, 
the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were 
present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity 
estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020 
Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm 
of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, 
which formed on September 17, 2005.

Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to 
have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in 
both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear 
and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most 
of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is 
likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the 
models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly 
decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly 
shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to 
deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The 
official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model 
consensus.

Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a 
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume 
shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the 
western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact 
speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the 
guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through 
the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets, 
the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level 
trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track 
forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest 
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.2N  42.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 17.4N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 17.9N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  09/0000Z 18.7N  44.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 19.6N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  10/0000Z 20.3N  48.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  10/1200Z 20.7N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  11/1200Z 21.0N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 23.0N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky