Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Paulette (AL172020) DATA RELEASED: 9/14/2020 3:00:00 AM UTC

Copy of official data

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it has
appeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery from
Bermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Paulette
are very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAA
hurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt
(which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt.
Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt.
The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last pass
through the eye was 976 mb.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very 
similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the 
past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some 
additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches 
Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is 
possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from 
Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane 
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is 
expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins 
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is 
generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the 
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in 
excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The 
hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then 
accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower 
eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a 
large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is 
forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday and
hurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within the
next few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


INIT  14/0300Z 31.4N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  14/1200Z 32.8N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  15/0000Z 34.9N  63.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  15/1200Z 37.1N  60.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  16/0000Z 39.3N  55.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  16/1200Z 41.6N  49.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  17/0000Z 43.8N  44.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  18/0000Z 46.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 43.5N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Zelinsky