Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael
has been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it
moved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85
kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the
eastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the
low-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely
making it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected due
to frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the
trend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the
cyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below
tropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the
Hurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and
Friday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is
expected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low
pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to
accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper
mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal
system. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn
east-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the
north Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered
about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were
made.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge
is expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach,
where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 34.0N  81.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  12/0000Z 36.4N  77.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  12/1200Z 39.3N  70.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  13/0000Z 42.4N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  14/0000Z 47.9N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  15/0000Z 49.7N  13.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart