Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

The structure of Leslie has changed little since the last advisory,
with a cluster of convection just north of the low-level center and
a second cluster well to the southeast of the center.  The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from earlier
scatterometer data, but it is possible that this is a little
generous.  It should be noted that overall, Leslie has lost some
organization since this time yesterday due to the disappearance of
the eye and an overall decrease in convective banding.

Leslie appears to be slowing its forward speed, with the initial
motion now 345/8.  A turn to the north and a slower forward speed
are expected during the next 12 h, followed by a turn toward the
east-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies.  A general motion toward the east-southeast
or southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast
period.  As noted in the previous advisory, there has been a
southward shift in the guidance, and the new forecast track is again
shifted a little to the south of the previous track.  However, it
lies to the north of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The forecast track takes Leslie over cooler waters around days 2-3,
into increasing shear around days 3-4, and over warmer water with
decreasing shear around days 4-5.  However, the structure of Leslie
is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity either up
or down.  Thus, the intensity forecast follows the trend of the
previous forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening for
48-72 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These
swells will also increase near the coasts of New England and
Atlantic Canada later today.  Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 36.2N  58.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 36.8N  58.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 37.1N  56.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 36.9N  54.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 36.5N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 35.0N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 33.0N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 31.0N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven