Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better
organized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in
infrared satellite images.  A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass
revealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken
convection surrounding it.  T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were
4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt.  This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane
of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear
over the next day or two.  These conditions should allow for some
additional strengthening.  After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving
over cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later
in the period.

Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that
the cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end.  A
shortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge
to the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward
by tonight.  A northward motion is then expected to continue over
the next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn
eastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic.
The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this
scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the
next couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United
States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.
These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New
England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult
products from your local weather office as these conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 29.6N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 29.7N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 30.8N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 32.8N  57.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 35.0N  57.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 37.1N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  07/0600Z 37.0N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 37.0N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown