Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

Recent microwave imagery has revealed that Jose has a fairly sturdy
structure, despite 20-25 kt of northerly shear.  The hurricane has
a well-defined mid-level eye, and a 2241 UTC WindSat pass shows a
well-defined low-level circulation that is slightly eroded on the
northwest side.  Since Dvorak final-T numbers are 4.0 from TAFB and
SAB, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, although it wouldn't be
surprising if the winds were a little stronger than that.  Jose
could strengthen slightly during the next 12-24 hours while it
remains in a regime of northerly shear, and models like the HWRF
and HCCA support that thinking.  After 24 hours, the shear is
expected to turn out of the west-northwest and west directions,
which are less likely to support intensification.  Therefore, the
NHC official forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus
(IVCN), showing Jose becoming a tropical storm on days 3 through 5.
The ECMWF shows Jose encountering significant westerly shear by day
5, so it's possible that NHC forecast may be a little high toward
the end of the forecast period.

The microwave data indicated that Jose's center is a little more
southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion
estimate is now 125/8 kt.  Jose is being pushed southeastward on
the back side of a large mid-latitude trough, but this trough will
soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to
its north.  As a result, Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise
loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and
northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge.
Only the UKMET disagrees with this scenario by maintaining a
persistent ridge to the north, and that model is discounted at this
time.  The NHC track forecast lies closest to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF for most of the forecast period, and it's only a bit
southwest of the previous forecast through day 3 to account for the
updated initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 26.5N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 25.9N  65.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 25.3N  65.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 25.2N  66.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 25.6N  67.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 27.3N  70.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  17/0000Z 30.0N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 32.5N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg