Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Bret is nearing the Lesser Antilles and remains close to hurricane 
strength.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating 
the storm this morning and found winds to support maintaining the 
initial intensity at 60 kt.  Bret remains very titled in the 
vertical, with the low-level center located near the southwestern 
edge of the main area of deep convection.  The aircraft found the 
strongest winds on the north side of the circulation, with generally 
light winds on the southwest side of Bret.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 12 kt on the south 
side of a subtropical ridge.  Since the ridge is expected to remain 
in place, Bret should continue its westward motion but at a faster 
pace.  This should take the storm across the Lesser Antilles this 
evening and overnight and then across the eastern and central 
Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.  Although the models are in fair 
agreement, there is some spread in the forward speed among the model 
solutions.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one 
and remains on the fast side of the guidance envelope, in best 
agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models.

Bret is expected to maintain its intensity when it moves across the 
Lesser Antilles tonight.  However, weakening should begin shortly 
after that due to a pronounced increase in westerly shear and dry 
air intrusions.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the 
previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN solutions.  Bret is 
still expected to degenerate into an open wave Saturday night or 
early Sunday before reaching the western Caribbean Sea.

There is a risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several 
islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the 
center crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening
and tonight as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Martinique and Dominica.  There is a risk of flooding from heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within
the warning area.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  Additional watches or
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 13.8N  57.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 14.0N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 14.3N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 14.5N  66.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 14.6N  70.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  25/0000Z 14.5N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi