Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Beryl (AL022018) DATA RELEASED: 7/6/2018 5:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Beryl has lost its tiny pinhole eye from earlier this morning, but
the system continues to produce a compact area of deep convection
near the center.  Since Dvorak estimates have changed little from
six hours ago, the initial intensity will remain 70 kt for this
advisory.  Global model fields continue to show an upper-level
anticyclone moving westward in tandem with the hurricane for the
next 48 hours or so, which would keep the vertical shear low enough
to allow for some intensification.  After 48 hours, however, the
upper-level pattern is expected to evolve to southerlies or
westerlies over the system, which would increase the shear and
cause weakening.  Given the seemingly favorable environment for the
next 2 days, the NHC intensity forecast continues to lie along the
upper bound of the guidance.  After 48 hours, the intensity
forecast is closer to the HCCA model and the intensity consensus.
It bears repeating that the intensity forecast remains highly
uncertain given Beryl's small size, and the cyclone could just as
easily dissipate into an open wave sooner than indicated in the
official forecast.

The hurricane is moving westward, or 270/13 kt, and may have
actually lost a little latitude today.  Given the more southerly
initial position, the track guidance suite has shifted south
accordingly, and the new NHC track has been adjusted in that
direction as well, lying between the model consensus aids and the
southern edge of the solutions.  Additional southward adjustments to
the forecast track are likely if Beryl does not gain latitude soon.

Given the larger-than-normal uncertainties associated with Beryl's
future track and intensity, the governments and meteorological
services of several of the countries in the Lesser Antilles have
elected to issue tropical storm or hurricane watches for their
islands, sooner than the typical 48-hour threshold for the onset of
tropical-storm-force winds.  Please refer to products issued by
the meteorological services of those respective countries for
additional information.

Due to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at
land locations in the wind speed probability text product are too
high and do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over
land.  The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics
on the NHC website at, and in the publicly
disseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced
probabilities over land.  As a result, users should refer to the NHC
website graphics and gridded products instead of the text product
for the most accurate wind speed probability values until this
problem is resolved.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the
Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some
islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are
increasing.  Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued
by some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional
watches could be required for other islands tonight or early

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.


INIT  06/2100Z 10.6N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  07/0600Z 11.1N  49.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  07/1800Z 11.9N  51.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  08/0600Z 12.9N  54.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  08/1800Z 13.8N  58.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  09/1800Z 16.1N  66.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  10/1800Z 18.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Berg