TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS.  INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION. 
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.  BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.   

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND PANHANDLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 24.2N  85.5W    40 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 26.5N  84.5W    40 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    45 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  78.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     04/1800Z 41.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM 

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


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