Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Alberto (AL012018) DATA RELEASED: 5/27/2018 10:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no
stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center.
Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.  The
system is still not well organized with some elongation of the
center noted.  Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so
the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window
of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially
closed.  Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall,
which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and
the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions.

The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now
estimated to be 315/08 kt.  Alberto is moving on the northeastern
side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation.  Early this week,
a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough
will approach Alberto from the northwest.  This pattern should
induce a northward turn over the next few days.  Due to the recent
more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the
official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the
previous one.  Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been
changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday.  Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow.

4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 28.5N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  28/1200Z 29.6N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  29/0000Z 31.2N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  29/1200Z 33.3N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  30/0000Z 35.8N  87.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  31/0000Z 41.5N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  01/0000Z 46.5N  82.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch