HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

KIRK HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. THE
HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE 18Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS
T4.5/77 KT KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THAT THE CDO FEATURE HAS
EXPANDED AND TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11 KT. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.
KIRK CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. AS A RESULT...THE NEW
FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...
WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

KIRK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY DRY AIR ISSUES...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY COMPACT
CYCLONE...WHICH MAKES IT VULNERABLE TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL
SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF NEARBY DRY AIR...THE CYCLONE COULD STILL
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 36-48 HOURS. BY
96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND SSTS
LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 28.2N  50.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  31/0600Z 29.5N  50.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  31/1800Z 31.8N  50.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 34.4N  49.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 37.5N  46.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  02/1800Z 44.5N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  03/1800Z 51.5N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART