Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

The center of Fernand has become exposed this afternoon with 
bursting convection continuing well south of the center.  The 
initial intensity will remain 50 kt on this package per continuity 
from earlier scatterometer winds, but if convection doesn't 
redevelop soon near the center, this is probably a generous 
estimate.  Weakening should begin soon regardless with increasing 
shear and cooler waters in the path of the storm.  Fernand is 
forecast to become post-tropical early on Wednesday due to a lack of 
convection, but it wouldn't be surprising if that transition 
happened sooner.  The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an 
update of the previous one, near the model consensus.

The initial motion is north-northeast or 030/12 kt. A general 
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some 
increase in speed during the rest of Fernand's life due to steering 
from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough.  Models are 
trending toward a slower and rightward solution, suggesting a weaker 
storm will not feel the approaching mid-latitude trough as much.  
The new official forecast is shifted south of the previous one, 
closer to the Google Deep Mind model, which has had a very good 
performance so far for this cyclone. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 35.3N  57.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 36.8N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 38.7N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 40.5N  51.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  27/1800Z 43.0N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake