Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

Lorenzo continues to struggle this evening, with convective 
organization.  However, satellite images depict that there has been 
a recent burst of convection near the center of the system, although 
these bursts have been intermittent throughout the day. Subjective 
and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. 
Given the convection has only just recently returned over the 
center, the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt for this 
advisory.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of 
345/10 kt. A turn to the north is expected overnight as the system 
rounds the western edge of a subtropical ridge, followed by an 
accelerated northeastward motion throughout the rest of the forecast 
period as the system becomes engulfed in the flow of an approaching 
trough from the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the 
previous, just a little faster and lies between the simple and 
corrected consensus aids.

The drier air and wind shear have continued to take their toll on 
Lorenzo, with convection remaining disorganized. As Lorenzo begins 
to accelerate the system is anticipated to struggle to produce 
organized convection and maintain a closed circulation, eventually 
opening into a trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast moved up 
dissipation to 48 h, although most global models show Lorenzo 
opening into a trough and dissipating even sooner. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 19.6N  45.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 21.3N  44.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 24.0N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 26.9N  38.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly