TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED
VERY MUCH...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A NEARBY SHIP REPORT
INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ASYMMETRY
OF THE WINDS AND THE RAIN SHIELD SUGGEST THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING
TO SLOWLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE LESLIE REACHES SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
IT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

LESLIE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL JET EAST OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 40.0N  59.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 44.4N  56.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 51.5N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  12/0600Z 58.0N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  12/1800Z 62.5N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  13/1800Z 62.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  14/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA