TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE FORMED AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH INDICATES
THAT GORDON IS STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T3.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5 FROM SAB...AND T2.7 ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. GIVEN
THE MID-LEVEL BANDED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN A 16/1143 UTC SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 45-KT TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
GORDON IS RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
045/14 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
EAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... 
SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT
LEAST 27C LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. BY 48
HOURS...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
SHARPLY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO PUT A BRAKE ON THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS. AS GORDON APPROACHES THE AZORES IN 4 DAYS...
THE SYSTEM COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRANSITION INTO A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISOR