Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Small bursts of deep convection have continued near the estimated 
center of the depression, with some skeletal convective bands over 
the outer portions of the circulation. Earlier scatterometer data 
revealed the strongest winds were occurring to the south and east of 
the center, offshore of the southern coast of Cuba. The overall 
organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little overnight, 
and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the earlier 
scatterometer winds and recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The estimated motion of the depression is still west-northwestward 
at about 14 kt. The influence of an upper-level trough over the 
eastern United States should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward 
and then northward this weekend as it moves toward a break in the 
subtropical ridge. This motion will bring the system across western 
Cuba this morning, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and 
toward the Florida Big Bend region on Sunday and Sunday night. There 
is reasonably good confidence in this portion of the track forecast, 
and only slight westward adjustments were made to the NHC prediction 
based on the latest track consensus aids. After landfall, weakening 
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it 
moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia. 
Thereafter, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain as it is 
unclear whether the system will accelerate northeastward ahead 
of an upper trough (GFS) or get left behind and meander over 
the southeastern U.S. or near the coast (ECMWF).

After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable 
for intensification. The latest NHC forecast shows the cyclone 
becoming a tropical storm by tonight, with additional strengthening 
expected while it moves across deep warm waters in a weak shear 
environment. The regional hurricane models and statistical guidance 
continue to indicate some potential for the system to reach 
hurricane strength before it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend 
region. Although the latest NHC forecast does not explicitly show 
the cyclone becoming a hurricane, note that additional strengthening 
could occur between 48-60 h. Weakening is forecast after landfall 
while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 
day 3, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain and highly 
dependent on whether the center stays inland or emerges off the 
Atlantic coast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban 
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the 
Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river 
flooding will also be possible.

2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central 
Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are 
possible late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected 
farther south along FloridaG��s west coast, including the Tampa Bay 
area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are 
in effect.

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm 
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach 
to Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a 
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are 
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the 
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of 
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will 
likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 22.0N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 23.4N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 25.3N  83.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 27.5N  84.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 29.1N  83.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  05/1800Z 30.4N  83.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
72H  06/0600Z 31.2N  82.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
96H  07/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  08/0600Z 33.0N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart