Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Melissa is starting to re-intensify.  A large convective burst 
continues near the center, albeit stretched from northeast to 
southwest.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found 
that the pressure has fallen a few mb to 970 mb, with increased 
maximum 700-mb flight-level wind to 100 kt.  While normally this 
would support closer to 90-kt surface winds, those strong winds 
were over 75 n mi from the center well away from the central core.  
This typically signifies a lower-than-standard wind reduction, so 
the initial intensity is set to 85 kt on this advisory.  

The hurricane is moving faster tonight, with microwave and 
aircraft fixes resulting in an initial motion estimate of 030/18 
kt. Melissa is forecast to greatly accelerate during the next 
two days due to steering flow between a trough moving through 
the southeastern United States and a mid-level ridge over the 
central Atlantic.  This should cause the hurricane to move away 
from the Central Bahamas on Thursday morning and to the northwest 
of Bermuda Thursday night.  The fast track continues into Friday, 
with the then post-tropical Melissa forecast to move near the 
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as the calendar turns to November.  
Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the NHC forecast, 
near the Google DeepMind and HFIP Corrected Consensus models.

Melissa has a short window of time to intensify during the next day 
or so as it remains over warm waters with moderate shear.  While 
the shear greatly increases on Halloween along with cooling waters, 
the forecast speed of the cyclone also jumps up along with upper- 
level divergence from an approaching trough, which could lessen 
the weakening rate.  Extratropical transition is anticipated in 
about 48 hours due to very strong shear and cold waters.  The new 
NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one, remaining on 
the high side of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through overnight. 
Remain sheltered until local officials deem it safe to venture out. 
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge 
are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands through overnight.

2. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda beginning 
late Thursday and continuing through Thursday night.

3. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooded areas.  Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 24.3N  74.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 26.9N  72.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  31/0000Z 31.7N  68.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  31/1200Z 37.6N  62.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 44.0N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  01/1200Z 50.0N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  02/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/0000Z 56.5N  29.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0000Z 57.5N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake