TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 40 KT.  RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN THE
ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT OF
RE-STRENGTHENING SHOULD DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE STAYS
OVER THE WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND
THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE
FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INTI AL MOTION IS ABOUT
270/11.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
PREDICTION.  THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
BASIN.  THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 18.9N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  09/0600Z 18.9N  93.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
36H  10/0600Z 18.2N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
48H  10/1800Z 18.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH