HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A
HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED
LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS.  EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE
ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN"  DESCRIBED IN THE
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR
HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR
HURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER
PACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200
MB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE
THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO
SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 33.7N  34.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  33.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N  34.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  35.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  36.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 26.1N  39.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  41.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N  42.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW