Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
500 AM AST Tue Sep 23 2025

Gabrielle remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. 
However, it appears to have reached peak intensity, as the eyewall 
convective tops have become more asymmetric during the past few 
hours and the eye has become less distinct. This is likely due to 
the onset of moderate southwesterly vertical shear as shown by the 
restricted outflow in the southwestern quadrant. The various 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 
115-125 kt range, so the initial intensity is held at 120 kt.

The hurricane continues moving northeastward or 045/11 kt. Gabrielle 
should continue to move around the northwestern side of the 
mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 12-24 h and then 
accelerate east-northeastward in the southern portion of the 
mid-latitude westerlies.  A slight turn to the northeast ahead of a 
higher-latitude trough is expected in 72-96 h, followed by a more 
eastward motion as Gabrielle merges with the trough.  The guidance 
envelope has only minor changes since the last advisory. So, the new 
forecast, which lies near or just north of the consensus models, is 
close to the previous forecast through 60 h and a little south of it 
after that time. The new forecast is also a little faster than the 
previous forecast.

Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 h due to shear and 
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast 
track.  After that, increasing shear and even cooler water should 
cause a faster weakening. While the above-mentioned trough could 
provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle 
maintain some of its intensity, it is also likely to cause Gabrielle 
to start extratropical transition in about 60 h.  This transition 
will likely be complete just after the cyclone passes the Azores.  
The new intensity forecast is nudged downward from the previous 
forecast and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, 
the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, 
as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days.  These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2.  Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday. 
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle 
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind, 
rainfall, and wave impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 33.2N  59.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 34.2N  57.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 35.2N  52.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 35.8N  47.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 36.3N  40.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  25/1800Z 37.9N  34.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  26/0600Z 39.7N  28.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  27/0600Z 43.3N  19.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  28/0600Z 42.7N  13.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven