Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Debby has
a large central area of light and variable winds, with bands of
deep convection well removed from the center in both the northern
and southern semicircles.  The initial intensity is held at 50 kt
for this advisory, with these winds likely confined to the area of
stronger convection to the southeast of the center.  The central
pressure based on surface observations is near 994 mb.

Debby has been drifting just west of due north for the past several 
hours with an initial motion of 345/3.  This has brought the center 
near the South Carolina coast, and it is expected to move inland 
during the next few hours.  A continued slow north-northwestward 
motion is expected for the next 24 h, with the center crossing 
eastern South Carolina moving into North Carolina.  After that, the 
cyclone should recurve to the north and northeast on the east side 
of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes.  The latest track 
guidance has shifted a little to the west of the previous guidance, 
and the new forecast track is also shifted a little westward.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves 
inland.  After that, Debby is expected to weaken, with the system 
dropping below tropical-storm strength after 24 h.  As Debby 
crosses through the mid-Atlantic States, the cyclone is expected 
to merge with a frontal system and become an extratropical low by 
60 h. However, it is important to note that none of these changes 
will diminish the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across 
portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United 
States during the next few days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 32.9N  79.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 33.7N  79.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
24H  09/0000Z 35.3N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  09/1200Z 38.1N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  10/0000Z 42.1N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
60H  10/1200Z 46.3N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  11/0000Z 49.0N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven