TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY SEVERAL SWIRLS
REVOLVING AROUND A COMMON POINT...WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 N MI
TO THE WEST OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.6N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 19.7N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 21.2N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  05/0600Z 22.9N  40.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG