Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

The cloud pattern of Humberto has changed little in organization
over the past several hours.  Some rudimentary convective banding 
features are evident but the cold cloud tops are rather fragmented 
at this time.  Upper-level outflow is  being restricted over the 
western portion of the circulation, at least partially due to the 
outflow from disturbance 94L located near Puerto Rico.  The current 
intensity estimate is set at 40 kt in agreement with a recently 
received scatterometer pass.

The storm center is not yet very well-defined so the initial motion
is a rather uncertain 300/10 kt.  Over the next few days, Humberto 
should be steered generally west-northwestward to northwestward on 
the southwestern side of a subtropical mid-level high pressure area. 
The steering scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become 
more complicated in 2-3 days due to the interaction with the 
developing system 94L to the west.  The official forecast track is 
quite similar to the previous one, and roughly in the middle of the 
guidance.  However, due to the likely complications in the evolution 
of the steering flow, there is lower than normal confidence in this 
track forecast.

Global models suggest that there will be some relaxation in westerly 
vertical wind shear over Humberto in the coming days. This, along 
with very warm ocean waters and a moist mid-level air mass, should 
lead to strengthening.  The system will probably become a hurricane 
in a couple of days, and then strengthen into a major hurricane.  
The official intensity forecast is in reasonable agreement with the 
simple and corrected model consensus, including the latest FSU 
Superensemble forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 20.7N  55.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 21.4N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 21.9N  57.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 22.4N  57.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 22.9N  58.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  27/1200Z 23.4N  60.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 24.0N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 26.3N  66.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 30.1N  68.9W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake