Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over
central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon.  However,
the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is
not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a
tropical depression.  So, the system remains a potential tropical
cyclone at this time.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently
investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of
its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the
maximum winds remain near 25 kt.

The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous 
advisory.  However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A 
turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next 
couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical 
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley.  This 
should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h. 
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the 
Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, 
followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night 
and Sunday.  After that time, the system should cross the northern 
Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of 
the southeastern coast of the United States.  While the track 
guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of 
issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward, 
and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South 
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the 
center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being 
almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and 
the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could 
cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas 
receive the strongest impacts.

There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the 
previous advisory.  Slow development is possible while the system is 
over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression 
soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the 
Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear 
and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady 
strengthening is expected.  The two biggest uncertainties in the 
intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of 
Florida and how long it will take to consolidate.  The system is 
likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification 
likely over the Atlantic after 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across 
portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this 
weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also 
be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the 
Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape 
Sable to Boca Grande. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the 
Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of 
Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a 
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm 
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach 
to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a 
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are 
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the 
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of 
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system.  Additional watches and warnings will 
likely be required later tonight and on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 21.4N  78.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  03/0600Z 22.4N  80.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H  03/1800Z 24.2N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  04/0600Z 26.1N  83.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 28.1N  83.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  05/0600Z 29.7N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
72H  05/1800Z 30.9N  81.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
96H  06/1800Z 32.6N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H  07/1800Z 34.5N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven