Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface, satellite, and radar data show that Debby continues to 
linger near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South 
Carolina border.  The cyclone lacks strong convection near its 
center and the tropical-storm-force winds are mainly occurring in 
some bands well to the northeast and east of the center.  This was 
also shown by an earlier ASCAT pass.  The central pressure 
remains essentially unchanged, and the intensity is kept at 35 
kt for this advisory.

Debby remains trapped in a zone of weak steering currents within 
the subtropical ridge, and the current motion estimate is a very 
slow 070/3 kt.  The track guidance shows a generally eastward 
motion for the next day or so, taking the center temporarily 
offshore.  In 24-36 hours, a building mid-level ridge should cause 
the system to turn northward and move back inland early Thursday.  
After that, Debby is likely to accelerate northeastward over the 
eastern and northeastern U.S. ahead of an approaching mid-level 
trough.  The official track forecast has been adjusted toward the 
latest consensus model guidance, and is somewhat to the left and 
faster than the previous one. 

Assuming that Debby moves back over water tonight and Wednesday, 
some re-strengthening is anticipated.  However since the cyclone 
lacks an inner core and is not likely to move far enough east to 
interact with the  high oceanic heat content of the Gulf Stream, 
re-intensification is likely to be limited.  The official intensity 
forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. 

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South 
Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic 
flooding.  Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable 
flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina, 
western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of 
Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and 
northern New England through Saturday. 

2 Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the 
southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina 
through Thursday.  Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect 
for portions of that area. 

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South 
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to 
Cape Fear.  Residents in that area should follow any advice given by 
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 32.1N  80.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  07/0600Z 32.2N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  07/1800Z 32.6N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  08/0600Z 33.1N  79.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
48H  08/1800Z 34.0N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
60H  09/0600Z 35.8N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  09/1800Z 38.5N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  10/1800Z 45.0N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z 52.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch