Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

There are strong indications this morning that Jerry may no longer 
have a well-defined center of circulation.  Although there is 
obvious mid-level rotation in a small area of deep convection, low 
cloud lines in visible satellite imagery suggest the system may 
have degenerated into a surface trough of low pressure, which is 
echoed by global model fields.  We will continue advisories at the 
moment, pending some ASCAT data which should provide some additional 
clarity on the system's structure.  Advisories could be discontinued 
at any time if new data shows that Jerry has opened up into a 
trough.

Satellite intensity estimates are no higher than about 45 kt, so 
the current intensity is reduced to that value.  The European, 
UKMET, and Canadian models show Jerry's circulation remaining 
stretched out and weakening while beginning to merge with a 
frontal boundary located to its north near 30N in about 24 hours.  
Even the GFS, which keeps Jerry separate from the frontal boundary, 
shows the peak winds decreasing.  The new NHC forecast now shows 
Jerry becoming post-tropical by 48 hours and dissipating 72 hours, 
but both of these transitions could occur much earlier.  

Although the center is not well defined, the entire system is 
moving northward (005 degrees) at 14 kt.  A turn toward the 
northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by an eastward motion on 
Monday as Jerry merges with a front and becomes embedded in 
mid-latitude westerly flow.  The new track forecast is generally 
just an update of the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 25.8N  63.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 28.0N  62.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 30.3N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 32.0N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 32.6N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  14/0000Z 32.0N  56.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg