Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry is not a healthy tropical storm this morning.  The low-level 
circulation, as seen in satellite imagery and Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter data, is elongated in a southeast-northwest 
direction with most of the associated deep convection displaced 
well to the south-southeast.  The current intensity is held at 45 
kt, based on a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 54 kt measured 
by the reconnaissance aircraft and recent ASCAT data.  All of the 
tropical-storm-force winds appears to be within the eastern 
semicircle.

With the center not all that well defined, the current motion 
estimate of northwestward (325 degrees) at 14 kt is a bit 
uncertain.  Jerry is expected to turn northward later today as it 
moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with 
that trajectory continuing through early Sunday.  Then, a sharp 
northeastward and eastward turn is expected by Sunday night and 
Monday as Jerry becomes embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow.  
The NHC track forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid 
during that period and is not too different from the previous 
prediction.  On days 4 and 5, the official forecast has been nudged 
southward a bit based on the latest model trends.

Jerry continues to move in a direction directly into the shear 
vector, and this orientation is unlikely to change at least for the 
next 48 hours.  After 48 hours, the storm's motion and shear vector 
become more aligned, but then the storm will be moving over more 
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable 
atmosphere.  As a result, the intensity guidance has continued to 
trend downward.  The NHC forecast now only shows the possibility of 
some slight strengthening, but overall the intensity is nearly 
flatlined through day 5.

Thickness fields from the European, UKMET, and Canadian models 
suggest that Jerry could start to become entangled in a frontal 
boundary by Monday, and the Google DeepMind model loses a large 
number of its ensemble members by Tuesday.  Therefore, the NHC 
forecast now shows Jerry becoming extratropical by Wednesday, if not 
sooner.  Only the GFS keeps Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 
5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, 
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban 
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 20.2N  63.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 22.1N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 24.4N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 26.9N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 29.2N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  13/0000Z 30.8N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  13/1200Z 31.4N  59.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  14/1200Z 30.4N  54.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 30.8N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg