Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier 
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt.  Since 
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually 
weakening below hurricane intensity.  Assuming a typical rate of 
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt.  WSR-88D 
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an 
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the 
cyclone.  Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down 
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path 
of Debby.  

Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with 
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt.  Steering currents are 
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in 
forward speed.  Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward, 
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South 
Carolina border in about 36 hours.  Debby should move very slowly 
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so.  Then, a 
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone, 
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of 
the forecast period.  The official forecast track is a blend of the 
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains 
over land tonight and Tuesday.  By late Tuesday and thereafter, 
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore. 
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on 
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it 
remains over water.  The current official forecast shows only 
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.

Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system 
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern 
United States.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and 
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will 
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will 
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of 
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and 
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge 
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa 
Bay area, through this afternoon. 

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the 
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area. 

4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread 
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida 
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and 
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these 
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued 
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow 
any advice given by local officials. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 30.2N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 31.0N  82.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
24H  06/1200Z 31.7N  81.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  07/0000Z 31.9N  80.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H  07/1200Z 32.1N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H  08/0000Z 32.4N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  08/1200Z 33.0N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H  09/1200Z 34.6N  79.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 37.4N  76.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch