Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Jerry remains a disheveled tropical storm this evening. Most of the 
deep convection is displaced to the southeast of the low-level 
circulation, which continues to run out ahead due to continued 
northwesterly vertical wind shear. Air Force reconnaissance 
observations indicate a highly asymmetric wind field, with the peak 
850 mb flight level winds of 56 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and 
very little wind on the western side of the circulation. The flight 
level winds support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt this 
advisory. The surface pressure has been rising as well, with the 
latest dropsonde data supporting a minimum value of 1005 mb.

Jerry appears to finally be moving northwestward now, estimated at 
315/15 kt. The track reasoning remains about the same as this 
afternoon, as Jerry's track should gradually bend more poleward as 
it moves along the western side of a subtropical ridge. On the 
forecast track, Jerry is making its closest approach to the Leeward 
Islands currently, and its asymmetric wind field means that the 
majority of the stronger winds will stay east of the island chain. 
Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is 
forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass 
east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward 
asymmetry, significant impacts still remain unlikely there. The NHC 
track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, and is a rough 
blend between the slower and further west HCCA guidance and the 
faster and further east Google DeepMind Mean (GDMI). 

The tropical storm is struggling mightily against the unfavorable 
northwesterly vertical winds shear, and its current poor structure 
also does not bode well for future short-term intensification. After 
the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind 
shear does decrease to 10-15 knots, but given the current structure, 
it may take some time for the system to recover. Nonetheless, 
gradual intensification is shown beginning in 36 hours, though the 
intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory. Shear 
increases towards the end of the forecast and sea-surface 
temperatures decrease as Jerry recurves into the mid-latitude 
westerlies, and some weakening is shown again in 120 h. This remains 
a low confidence intensity forecast, and on the high side of the 
overall guidance envelope. 

The most significant hazard expected from Jerry over the next few 
days is heavy rainfall, even after Jerry passes to the north due to 
its current structure with most of the significant weather to the 
south and east of the tropical cyclone. 


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 18.2N  61.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 19.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 22.1N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 24.5N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  12/0000Z 27.1N  62.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  12/1200Z 29.5N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  13/0000Z 31.3N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  14/0000Z 31.8N  57.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 32.5N  51.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin