Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the 
tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days 
is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to 
the north and south of a broad vorticity center.  The maximum winds 
are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface 
observations is near 1012 mb.  Given the potential for development 
once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are 
initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

The initial motion is 290/14 kt.  A turn toward the northwest and 
north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves 
into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude 
trough over the Ohio Valley.  This should be followed by recurvature 
into the westerlies after about 60 h.  On the forecast track, the 
system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near 
the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  After that 
time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and 
move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of 
the United States.  The track guidance is in good agreement with 
this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel 
to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast 
of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large 
changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest 
impacts.

Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the 
system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it 
moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite
favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm 
sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is 
expected.  The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast 
are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how 
long it will take to consolidate.  The system is likely to weaken 
as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the 
Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across 
portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday 
morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the 
warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita 
Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along 
the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday 
night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 

3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of
Florida over the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 20.9N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  03/0000Z 21.7N  78.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
24H  03/1200Z 23.3N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  04/0000Z 25.1N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 27.2N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  05/0000Z 29.2N  82.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H  05/1200Z 30.7N  81.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H  06/1200Z 32.0N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/1200Z 33.6N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven